Saturday, March 8, 2014

No Time For Crying

We don't have any time to lament Gannon's heartbreaking 77-76 overtime PSAC Final Four loss to West Chester. We have lots of scoreboard watching to do and the PSAC women's championship to attend Sunday.

I'll use this post and the comments section to keep an eye on Gannon's possible NCAA bid. Here are the Atlantic Region rankings with up-to-date results listed by team (current overall record, region record) followed by some snap analysis. The records include this week's games.

1. West Liberty (24-3, 23-3): W vs. Notre Dame Oh., W vs. #6 Fairmont, L vs. #4 Charleston
2. East Stroudsburg (27-1, 27-1): W vs. Millersville, W vs. Mercyhurst, W vs. West Chester
3. Indiana Pa. (23-4, 23-4): L vs. Mercyhurst
4. Charleston W.V. (21-8, 21-8): W vs. Wheeling Jesuit, W vs. #8 Glenville, W vs. #1 West Liberty
5. Gannon (19-9, 19-9): W vs. Slippery Rock, L vs. West Chester
6. Fairmont State (18-10, 18-10): W vs. #9 West Va. Wesleyan, L vs. #1 West Liberty
7. Shepherd (20-10, 20-10): W vs. Concord, L vs. #8 Glenville State
8. Glenville State (18-10, 18-10): W vs. #7 Shepherd, L vs. #4 Charleston
9. West Virginia Wesleyan (18-12, 18-12): W vs. Urbana, L vs. #6 Fairmont
10. Livingstone (19-7, 19-6): CIAA tournament champions 
Dropped out: West Chester (20-9, 20-9): W vs. Bloomsburg, W vs. Gannon, L vs. #2 Stroud

Except for the loss to West Chester, things worked out in Gannon's favor today. The higher seeds -- West Liberty, Stroud, and Charleston -- all won their games. So that meant all the teams behind Gannon in the rankings -- #6 Fairmont, #8 Glenville, and surging Mercyhurst -- added a loss to their chart.

So here's how I think the field now looks --
LOCKS (5): West Liberty, East Stroudsburg, IUP, Charleston, Livingstone (CIAA champ)
VERY LIKELY IN (2): Gannon, Fairmont
FIGHTING FOR THE FINAL SPOT (3): Glenville, West Chester, Shepherd
HOPING TO STEAL AN AUTOMATIC BID (1): Mercyhurst
GONZO WITH BONZO AND ALONZO (2): West Va. Wesleyan, Mercyhurst

That's my opinion. The official verdict will be handed down Sunday at 10:30 PM via a live video presentation of the NCAA Division II Selection Show. I'm not sure who the committee will take between Glenville and Shepherd if Stroud beats West Chester in the PSAC finals. GSC took the season series 2-1 but they had more bad losses (WV State, Concord, WV Wesleyan) than did Shepherd (Notre Dame Oh., WV Wesleyan)

I strongly believe Gannon will make the field, and I'm hoping they're the #5 seed ... that's if IUP is the #3 seed and West Liberty is #1. I don't want GU to play Indiana in the first round; playing a league opponent to open the NCAAs is lame. And I'd love for Gannon to have shot at West Liberty just to see how Reilly's defense matches up with Jim Crutchfield's high-octane Hilltoppers.

Beggars can't be choosers, though. Just give the Knights a bid!

50 comments:

  1. Drat.

    Now we have to sweat out a few other games. Best case scenario for us:

    ESU beats Mercyhurst later this afternoon.
    West Liberty beats Fairmont tonight
    Charleston beats Glenville State tonight

    If that happens, there is no way that two teams will pass us in our hunt for the top seven.

    Worst case is that
    Mercyhurst wins the PSAC (steals a spot ... then only six teams go)
    Fairmont State or Glenville State goes onto win the MEC, passing Gannon
    The committee selects West Chester over Gannon due to a 2-0 record.

    Guess we have to see how it plays out.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I will tell you all the atta boys are always wiped out by one oh s----.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Was there a big frat party attended by ESU men last night?? So far, a (very) sluggish start by them against "that other team"....

    "Them" 22

    ESU 13.............6:49 1st Half...

    ReplyDelete
  4. Stroud rallies past Mercyhurst in the second half to win 63-55. ESU outscored the Lakers 38-22 in the final 20 minutes. Whew!

    ReplyDelete
  5. West Chester has a better record, is 2-0 vs Gannon and is in the PSAC finals. WC is in. Gannon's only hope is that Glenville loses to Charleton. Otherwise, nice season, great second half, but just a little short. Again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why? If Fairmont loses, they won't move ahead of Gannon.

      Delete
  6. Herb Magee is going to the tournament. Philadelphia won the CCAC title today over Holy Family, 42-41.

    ReplyDelete
  7. MEC Update: Charleston leads Glenville State 53-38 with 12:25 left in the second half.

    ReplyDelete
  8. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xk0RnN8pvu0

    ReplyDelete
  9. With Mercyhurst losing, the top seven teams will now make the regional (If WC wins on Sunday, I am assuming they move into the top seven because they probably deserve it)

    This means that three teams will need to jump Gannon this week. Gannon was fifth in the region and went 1-1 this week. Who can jump GU? There is a case for West Chester to jump GU. So which two others? Glenville may need to run the table and Fairmont may need to make the finals.

    So the only scenario that I see at this time is a Fairmont / Glenville MEC final and West Chester winning at Stroudsburg tomorrow. I'm not sure if West Chester can move from outside the top ten to #7 or better in the region with a 2-1 week.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Ouch on the loss, that being said, it looks like as long as ESU wins tomorrow, Gannon should make the NCAA's. Stinks to lose, but was bound to happen at some point.

    ReplyDelete
  11. #4 Charleston rolls #8 Glenville, 77-65, which should eliminate GSC from the NCAAs and ensure the Knights (and maybe West Chester?) a bid.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Charleston wins 74-67. I don't have all the formulas (or is that formulae?) in front of me, but it will be hard for Glenville to catch Gannon in the rankings, in my opinion. The Charleston victory helps GU's cause immensely.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Now the live stats have Charleston winning 76-65. Assuming the same crew is working both the men's and women's tournament, this is the 11th game in three days for these folks, so I'll give them a pass for being a little off their game. :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I watched the second half of the game on MEC TV online. Charleston is good -- very gifted on offense. Glenville's defense will not be confused with Gannon's anytime soon. The stats on TV said the final was 77-65 and that's what the announcers stated as well.

      Delete
  14. What would truly suck is if the NCAA decides that four PSAC teams in the tournament is one too many and Gannon gets the heave-ho and is replaced by an at-large squad from, say, Utah,hand-picked by the committee to balance out the brackets. Didn't that happen once before when Gannon was in the GLIAC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, they don't do that anymore. Now they have "regional integrity" and you either make your regional tournament or you stay home.

      Delete
    2. And there's no max on conferences, either, as long as the auto-bid conferences get their champ. One year six teams from the GLVC made the NCAAs.

      Last year, five teams from the PSAC, including four from the PSAC west made the women's Atlantic Regional.

      The regional integrity has been in effect since 1989.

      Delete
  15. Yeah, no more teams moving out of region anymore, which is the right thing to do.
    Congrats to Coach Brunelli and the Lady Knights for advancing to tomorrow's PSAC Championship game vs. Boro (please, no "tough-to-beat-team-three-times" conversation). Downed Bloom 57-51. Tough defensive struggle with moments of brilliance (leads of 8-0 and 33-19) and not so much (Bloom had 15-3 and 9-2 runs). Turnovers were a problem; some caused by great defense, others just losing focus. That said, Gannon controlled the final 2:30 and hit their foul shots while Bloom's 2 all-East performers went 1-4. Bigtime win.
    Odd situation regarding free throws: Gannon 8-9 in the first half, Bloom 0-0. Second half, Bloom shot 25 free throws, Gannon 13, with first coming under 3:00. Not saying good or bad, just weird.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Indeed. Was unable to make game today, but I will be there on Sunday.

      Can't allow a big run against Boro, who will bury us. Need to get stops and hit a few threes, preferably early. We never seem to get open looks against Edinboro.

      Don't forget to turn clocks ahead, or risk being late for game!

      Delete
  16. #6 Fairmont is headed for loss 10, trailing #1 West Liberty at the half by 18, 50-32.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I may have spoken too soon. It's now a 75-72 game with just over 7 minutes to play. FSU has scored 40 points in 13 minutes of play.

      Delete
    2. West Liberty holds off Fairmont, 97-87. That's great news for the Knights.

      Delete
  17. Wanted to let folks know....
    PSAC Women's Championship between Gannon and Edinboro will be carried live on WERG, 90.5 FM. Depending where the Regional is, i.e. Erie County, WERG will also carry all Gannon games. AND WERG, 90.5 FM will carry all 7 Elite Games.

    ReplyDelete
  18. In women's hoops, #1 Gannon fell at Edinboro while #2 Glenville blew out Charleston. Could be a long road to Erie Insurance Arena.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Gannon played well, but nobody's beating Boro when they shoot 10/16 on threes.

    Will be interesting to see who gets regional. Glenville State won this afternoon to capture MEC.

    MEC men: West Liberty leads 35-29 with 17 minutes to go.

    ReplyDelete
  20. If I had to guess, with Charleston beating West Lib, we're traveling to East Stroud for the regional

    my best guess

    1. East Stroud
    2. West Lib
    3. IUP
    4. Charleston
    5. West Chester
    6. Gannon
    7. Fairmont St
    8. Livingston

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'd have to respectfully disagree. West Chester was at best 11th in region (and that's doubtful) so I really can't picture them jumping 6+ spots to 5th. At absolute best WC may be 7th.

      I also think charleston would leapfrog IUP to become 3rd.

      Delete
    2. but West Chester made it to the PSAC final, beat us twice and has a better record.

      Delete
  21. Hmmm....sounds about right.....possibly Char 3/IUP 4?? (IUP's early PSAC tourney exit?)

    Whew.!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The big thing with the top three is that their records are so much better than everyone else's. Charleston has 8 losses to IUP's five. One of the first criteria that they look at is in region record, the top three have very strong resumes. This process is quite dissimilar to March Madness where much of the field is a committee's subjective evaluation. Head to head is one of at least 8 criteria that they consider.

      Delete
  22. here is my guess on the Men's side: 1. ESU, 2. West Liberty, 3. Charleston, 4 IUP 5. Gannon 6. Fairmont St. 7. Shepherd and 8. Livingstone.

    ReplyDelete
  23. I used to be decent at picking the bracket. I recall one year right before the selection show, Jodi Kest asked to see my prediction and when the region came in exactly as I had outlined it, she was kind of freaked out. Here goes:

    1. Urbana -- at 0-27 the only perfect team in the region
    2. Cheyney
    2a. Shippensburg
    4. Clarion
    .... maybe I've lost my touch.

    Here's my real best guess without know all the formulas the committee uses:
    1. Stroud
    2. West Liberty
    3. IUP
    4. Charleston
    5. Gannon
    6. Fairmont
    7. West Chester
    8. Livingstone

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jodi Kest was at the GU-Boro game today, so you should have shown her again.

      Delete
    2. Jim, this is from 2011, but I don't think it's changed since then..

      Primary criteria

      1. Overall Division II won-lost results.

      2. Opponents’ average winning percentage.

      3. Opponents’ opponents’ average winning percentage.

      4. Head-to-head competition.

      5. Results versus common opponents.

      6. Results versus Division II ranked teams (all regions – once ranked, always ranked).

      7. Performance indicator.

      Tiebreaker criteria

      1. Rating Percentage Index in-region data.

      2. Record in last 10 games.

      Delete
    3. so "what's the 'performance indicator'?" you ask....


      The “performance indicator” will provide point values (Division II games only) ranging from 23 for road wins against a team with a .750 record to 0 for a home loss against a team with less than a .250 winning percentage. The totals will change during the year along with the records of the opponents. Ultimately, all the possible points are totaled and then divided by the number of games to provide the number that will be used for comparison.

      Performance indicator

      23 − Win on road against a .750 or above team

      22 − Win neutral-site game against a .750 or above team

      21 − Win at home against a .750 or above team

      20 − Win on road against a .500-.749 team

      19 − Win neutral site game against a .500-.749 team

      18 − Win at home against a .500-.749 team

      17 − Win on road against a .250- .499 team

      16 − Win neutral site game against a .250-.499 team

      15 − Win at home against a .250-.499 team

      14 − Win on road against a .000-.249 team

      13 − Win neutral site game against a .000-.249 team

      12 − Win at home against a .000-.249 team

      11 − Road loss to .750 or above team

      10 − Neutral site loss to a .750 or above team

      9 − Home loss to a .750 or above team

      8 − Road loss to a .500-.749 team

      7 − Neutral site loss to a .500-.749 team

      6 − Home loss to a .500-.749 team

      5 − Road loss to a .250-.499 team

      4 − Neutral site loss to a .250-.499 team

      3 − Home loss to a .250-.499 team

      2 − Road loss to a .000-.250 team

      1 − Neutral site loss to a .000-.250 team

      0 − Home loss to a .000-.250 team

      The Championships Committee also approved the Men’s Basketball Committee’s recommendation to eliminate in-region Division II won-lost results as a primary criterion since so few out-of-region games are played. The in-region information will be factored into the Rating Percentage Index, which would be regarded as the No. 1 tiebreaker.

      The committee defeated a second proposal from the Men’s Basketball Committee that would have provided the opportunity to adjust the seeding in regional tournaments in cases where conference opponents would be playing each other for a fourth time (the previous three would be two regular-season games, plus a game in the conference tournament). The proposal was intended to enhance the championship experience for teams in such positions, but the Championships Committee concluded that the rule would be difficult to apply consistently and that it could be regarded as affecting the competition not only for the affected game but perhaps also for subsequent contests.

      Delete
  24. Looking at the women's side I think there is a very good chance it will be at Edinboro or Gannon. Glenville State is 60 miles from no where. I cannot even find a motel in the town. They would have to move it to Charlestown 60 miles away to accommodate a tournament.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Its important to note that schools can bid to host offsite of their own campus.

      Delete
  25. Each one of the candidates to host the regional at some point in the season puts in a bid to host the NCAAs. If the top seed's bid meets NCAA standards, then that team will host the regional.

    I cannot remember a time where a top seed did not host because the bid did not meet the NCAA standards. I have no idea whether or not Glenville submitted a bid.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was recently Golden, I can't remember if it was men's or women's but the number 1 seed did not bid and the 2nd seed ended up hosting.

      Delete
    2. it was within the last 5 years and was in our region.

      Delete
    3. Emporia state this year is #1 but the #2 seed is hosting.

      Also if anyone remembers the huge debacle a few years back when the #1 team was from Hawaii and the rest were scattered amongst the continental US. The #1 team hosted their 4 teams and the #2 team hosted it's 4 teams and NCAA said whichever seed was highest remaining would host. Well #1 from Hawaii was left and the #3 seed hosted the regional final. NCAA at its finest.

      Delete
  26. Just saw that former GU assistant Chris Kibler is on the staff of University of Charleston who knocked off West Liberty in the MEC final today.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Killing time as I nervously await the selections ...

    If the decision is made to hold the regional at the campus nearest the geographic center of the eight teams, then the regional would be held at Frostburg State, MD (based on the teams in Jim's projected selections).

    ReplyDelete
  28. ....Remember in yesteryear when Millersville had to come up here??

    Thanks, Bud! R.I.P

    ReplyDelete
  29. No surprises for women's. Glenville 1, Boro 2, Gannon 3.

    Hopefully gu gets a 4th shot at Boro and will finally adjust and figure out how to beat the lady scots.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Speaking of women's. Again, what happened to Ashland?? They win it all last year and not only don't make the tournament but had a very sub par season..? Were they all seniors las year?

      Delete
    2. Hopefully, Gannon knocks off Shaw and Charleston uses a home-crowd advantage (60 miles from Glenville) to defeat Edinboro in the first round. I don't want to see Boro again.

      I think that Ashland had a bunch of seniors last year a la our women's 2010 team.

      Delete
  30. I was close, just West Chester and Gannon flip flopped, Gannon holds onto the 5 seed.

    ReplyDelete