Saturday, January 29, 2011

This Is Exactly Why I Don't Bet On Sports

Imagine if some guy came up to you right before today's Gannon game at Clarion and whispered, "Psst -- buddy! Wanna make a bet? You can earn $50k easy. Here's the deal: You put in 50 grand and I'll put in 50, too. Winner takes all $100k. The cherry on top is that I give you Clarion plus 8 for today's game. It's a no-brainer, pal. You get the favorite plus 8 points."

While you're pondering the offer, the guy offers up these facts going into the game:
* The Knights have lost 3 in a row and 4-of-5, the only W at home over stinky Lock Haven. Clarion, meanwhile, has won two straight and 3-of-4. Their two most recent wins were at IUP (where Gannon was throttled by 20) and a 111-38 drubbing of Lock Haven. Clarion led that game 57-11 at the break. When Gannon played the Bald Eagles, GU struggled to earn a 2-point halftime advantage.

* Gannon is just 1-5 on the road this year. In each of their 5 road losses they fell behind by 17 points and struggled just to make the game competitive (except at Cheyney where the Wolves devoured them by 19). Clarion is riding an 11-game home win streak, a 17-of-18 stretch at the Waldo Tippin Gymnasium dating back to last year. One of those W's was a 19-point drubbing the Golden Eagles put on the Knights Jan. 16 last year.

* Look at the PSAC West head-to-head matchups this season:
vs. Edinboro: CU +10, GU -8; an 18-point Clarion advantage
vs. IUP: CU +5, GU -20 ; a 25-point Clarion advantage
vs. Lock Haven: CU +gazillion (actually +73), GU +27; a 46-point Clarion advantage
vs. Mercyhurst: CU -9 in OT, GU -4 in OT; a 5-point Gannon advantage but keep in mind Gannon played the 'Hurst at home while Clarion went on the road

The numbers, the stats, the trends -- they're all saying to lay down the $50k and you'll be getting double your money right after the game. Then the guy offers the clincher. "And the only way I can win is if the final score is in the form of a palindrome. What's it gonna be, buddy? You in?"

I hope you didn't take the bet. After Gannon's surprising 76-67 victory today, you'd be paying up. I can't figure it out either. I just hope the same thing happens Wednesday at Slippery Rock so the Knights stay in the PSAC West race.

10 comments:

  1. I know this is coach R methodology to have fairly intense practice before games, however,I have a hard time not believing it leads to fatigued players esp. if a few players are playing most of the game. Just from a physiological point of view muscles need to recover, etc. etc. Having a practice today at noon for one and half hours doesn't nearly give enough recovery time and I doubt the players are following any type of post practice recovery methods. NOT saying this is the reason for late game let downs and I've heard others on here talk about being in shape to play 40 minutes as a rebuttal ... but you can not argue against physiology and the Krebs cycle ... esp. when exercising those muscles before a game. A couple of signs of fatigue are shots falling short, missed foul shots, missed assignments on defense due to lack of concentration, players lagging up the court. Just throwing out a perspective while waiting for the game to start.

    ReplyDelete
  2. So much for my first post ... no fatigue this game. Nice complete game.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Well as I type this with 1 minute left, assuming we hang on, this is a HUGE win for both the Women and the Men, and this is what can happen when the Men play a complete game. My question is how bad were the refs near the end? It sounded like we had the usual 3 blind mice crew at it.

    ReplyDelete
  4. When the refs realized GU was up 16 with about 3 minutes left, there were about 6 calls in a row, 3 or 4 that could have been called either way, that went Clarion's way. However, GU hung in, made their FT's, and took it. Agee, Battle and Brannen were huge.

    Nice team win!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Uh... On that bet. The wow factor of about 125+
    crazy fans of Gannon were there to cheer on their teams. That could only have helped even in this weather that was a nice showing.

    ReplyDelete
  6. GU Fanman...should have been at least 130+, person who was driving us 4 students down got sick at the last minute, I know I could hear someone going off on the officials, I assume that was you.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Nice win today ... Chapman said, "It always seems like you play well when you shoot well."

    GU shot 57% to CU 37%, including 6/12 on threes vs. CU 1/13. Was it hot shooting, or just Gannon getting off more uncontested shots?

    Free-throws were about even, but CU had 69 FG attempts to Gannon's 48.

    Other thoughts / questions:

    Turnovers -- GU 15 CU 10
    CU had 20 offensive rebounds; Gannon had 27 defensive rebounds. Gannon only had five offensive rebounds.

    Why did Stevie P play only 16 minutes?

    If you're one of those comparative scores people: Clarion beat Lock Haven by 73. Cal just beat Lock Haven by 25. Therefore, Clarion should be 48-point favorites over Cal. :-)

    ReplyDelete
  8. Wasn't able to make trip or listen, but was very happy to see the two texts with both womens and mens scores.

    After the heartbreaking loss to the Sea Men, Gannon needed a huge road win like this. Good to show poise in being able to shake off the previous game and focus on the task at hand.

    How about MC beating iup and the rock knocking off boro... Take away Lock Haven and the psac seems to be a "any team, any day" conference (similar to the Big East).

    Re steve: his leg was bothering him. People I talked to that went to game said he came out grabbing his let several times and the trainer was constantly working on his leg.

    Re the bet: I would have declined simply because that would have been "too good to be true". Meaning the guy offering the bet probably had something with the referees and the game was going to be fixed.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Will tomorrow's game against Slippery Rock be postponed due to Slippery Roads?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Well put it this way...the student group had plans to travel down for this one...no illness this time, but the weather...if it is as bad as they claim it will be....the trip won't be happning. And I would not be shocked if the game was cancelled

    ReplyDelete